Sunday, February 03, 2008

Don't Count On "Students" Changing Regime in Iran

It was only 2-weeks ago or so when Condi Rice said, again, that US is willing to discuss "normalcy" in relations with Iran if only Iran stopped enrichment, etc. (can you say, ‘Legacy’?). And President Bush, in turn, made the same old hollow "warnings" to the "Tehran Regime" in his State of Union address. But the contradiction in their Iran policy is so severe and pathetic that even Iran regime’s assistant foreign minister reacted to Bush's Iran references by saying that Bush "warnings" to Iran were "repetitive and boring rhetoric"!

As for the student demonstrations in Iran now and in the past, yes, these students are chanting "Death to the Dictator", but they have never have chanted "Death to the Islamic Republic of Iran". The reason is quiet clear to the people inside Iran: these students are supported by the reformist faction within the regime, i.e., Euro-mullahs faction led by Khatami and Rafsanjani. Since the parliamentary 'elections' are near in March, these 'students' are once again instigated by reformist to stage demonstrations not against the regime as a whole, but against the faction opposing reformists, i.e., Ahamdinejad and Khamenei et al. These reformist-instigated protests are designed to weaken the hardliners politically so that the reformists could come back into majority in the parliament come spring.

These 'student' protests are no call for revolution, I am afraid; indeed they are in fact for the strengthening and preservation of the "reformist" faction within the same regime. They are designed to preserve the regime, not to destroy it. So, it would be wishful and naive to see these protests as a sign that 'regime change' will happen from within Iran. There are no meaningful, genuine, or organized opposition that will pose a threat to the regime as a whole. The opposition that could organize a regime changing movement has been systematically arrested, and killed by the regime in the past 27-years.

As for “sanctions”, the first 2 have had no meaningful impact on the regime, and the coming third, and watered-down sanction, also promises to be as ineffective.

There is only one solution left for Iran regime change, but no one wants to talk about it. And that's not happening for the foreseeable future. In fact if Hussein Obama is elected, we will have an “Anti-Regime Change” in Iran with Hussein Obama drinking Persian tea and eating sweets with the Iranian mullahs shortly after he places his hand on the Koran (like it is purported that he did when being sworn in as a Senator) to swear in as the President of the USA.

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