Sunday, December 23, 2007

Regime Change? What Regime Change?

Suddenly, Iran is helping quell the violence in Iraq, US is talking ‘talks’ and compromise with Iran, Iraq violence subsides, and Iranian regime gets its long awaited nuclear fuel shipment from Russia for its Bushehr nuclear plan (which incidentally, President Bush actually praised since he said it meant that Iran does not have to continue with enrichment anymore.) What?!

What could be the possible reasons for such sudden White House playing happy times with Iran?

The White House says Iran is helping quell violence in Iraq since the Iranians have realized that the violence they instigated was turning the Shiite masses. A weak argument at best, since Tehran regime has never shied away from mass opposition to it. Case in point are the Iranian people themselves who have been by a large majority against the regime, yet the regime keeps on persecuting them un-flinched for almost 29 years.

The most plausible reason for this sudden semi-détente with Tehran is what the Bush administration has not told us about. And that is, a back door, behind-the-scene deal between US and Iran: Help us bring back peace to Iraq in exchange for US backing out a notch on your nuclear program. The Iranians brought up their POWs in Iraq, and their long awaited nuclear fuel shipment from Russia that has been blocked by the US so far. In return, US agreed to deliver, releasing Iranian POWs in Iraq, and signaling to Russia that it was now OK to release the first shipment of nuclear fuel to the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

So are we ready to send Condi Rice to Tehran to sing Kumbaya with the mullahs now? Perhaps not, but we are certainly laying the foundation for having the option to not to oppose it later.

Furthermore, it could seem that US, in a tactical move, is cooperating with Iran in order to quiet down Iraqi violence for political reasons, most likely for the 2008 presidential elections. When Iraq calms down, US troops will be relocated to Afghanistan which will help boost Bush’s poll numbers. The Bush administration is trying to create an atmosphere in which the next Republican presidential nominee (most likely McCain) could actually win.

If true, it could be deduced then, that any serious, drastic action against the Iranian regime –if it ever happens at all—is being postponed until the next Republican president takes hold of the White House in January 2009.

The new Republican president, if he does get elected, may –some time in his term-- initiate military action against Iranian regime for the purpose of regime change, or just surgical strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites.

On the other hand, depending on how many more Iran-appeasing deals Condi Rice makes with the mullahs between now and 2009, and whether the internal political structure in Iran changes in favor of the ‘reformist’ Khatami/Rafsanjani crowd (who have EU ties), we could be setting the stage for shelving the ‘regime change’ idea permanently in favor of ‘peaceful co-existence’ with Iran for the foreseeable future. And naturally, this will be especially true if an Obama, or a Chelsea’s Mama get into the White House in 2009.

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